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🎙️ What We Covered:
Markets are ripping like it's 2021 again—but this time it's not just AI hype. We’ve got rate-cut fever, softening economic data, and one inflation print that could decide everything.
In this episode, we broke down:
🔹 Why bad news is bullish again (hint: the Fed loves excuses)
🔹 How GDP & jobless claims just supercharged cut bets
🔹 Trump’s plan to replace Powell—and why Wall Street’s all in
🔹 NVDA’s climb + AI flow = still not tired
🔹 Option flow tea: SPY puts, MSFT/NVDA calls, and PCG sneaky upside
📊 Market Snapshot:
S&P 500: 🚀 Pushing all-time highs
GDP: 📉 Revised to -0.5%
Jobless Claims: 🆙 Highest since Nov 2021
Fed Rate Cut Odds:
July cut: 27% (was 12%)
September: 92% chance 😳
10Y Yield: ⬇️ 4.25%
Dollar: 🪫 Lowest since April 2022
NVDA: 🔺 Another ATH. AI chip demand? $650B runway.
🔍 The Big Themes:
1️⃣ The “Bad News = Good News” Macro Flip
Soft GDP + rising claims = Powell's hand is being forced. Markets are sniffing out a rate cut before Powell admits it. Even better? Trump might help push him out the door.
“Recession-lite” is the bullish new narrative. 🤷♂️
2️⃣ Trump’s Fed Shake-Up
Trump’s reportedly eyeing a dovish Powell replacement. Traders are already pricing in a friendlier Fed chair before the election. It’s become the Trump Trade 2.0.
Less hawk, more helicopter money?
3️⃣ Tech Is Still the Juggernaut
$NVDA up again. $QS and $CORZ catching bid from AI news. Loop Capital dropped a $250 PT. Bank of America says $650B AI chip demand incoming.
This isn’t meme mania—it’s capital chasing earnings.
4️⃣ Options Flow Breakdown (What the Big Money’s Doing):
🟢 $MSFT $205 Calls – $3.5M
🔴 $SPY $475 Puts – $9.15M
🟢 $NVDA $205 Calls – $2.9M
🟢 $PCG $17 Calls – $2.98M
Big takeaway? Smart money is hedging hard—even while riding the wave. 🎢
📅 Friday = Market Judgment Day
The PCE report drops Friday. Core inflation ticks down? The rally rips. If not? That put flow might finally pay.
Watch SPY 5100. Watch VIX. And maybe don’t YOLO just yet.
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