🔮 Weekly Outlook: Musk Meltdown, Inflation Anticipation, and the Market's Jenga Tower

S&P hits 6K, but under the hood? Wage cracks, tariff risk, and a Fed that might not be your friend. Buckle up—this week could shift the whole narrative.

🧠 Quick Take:

Markets just broke 6,000 on the S&P 500—and everyone’s wondering if it’s a launchpad or the top of a bubble. With inflation data incoming, the Fed on deck, and Elon Musk in a Twitter brawl with Trump, this week’s risk radar is blinking red.

📈 Last Week Recap:

• S&P 500: 🔺 +1.6% — flirting with record highs

• Nasdaq: 🔺 +2.3% — AI chip stocks + Musk recovery = liftoff

• Dow Jones: 🔺 +1.1% — not dead yet

May’s jobs report was decent on the surface—139K jobs, steady 4.2% unemployment. But under the hood? Wage gains, negative revisions, and prime-age jobholders exiting stage left. Cracks forming, but not yet breaking.

🔥 Top Themes This Week

📊 CPI + PPI: Inflation’s Encore Act

This week is an inflation double-feature—CPI on Wednesday, PPI Thursday. Market bulls need a Goldilocks number. Too hot and it’s game over. Too cold and recession fears return.

Projections:

• Headline CPI YoY: +2.5% (prev. 2.3%)

• Core CPI YoY: +2.9% (prev. 2.8%)

• Monthly Core CPI: +0.3% (prev. 0.2%)

🎯 The twist: tariffs could push goods prices up, but services inflation might cool just enough to keep the Fed snoozing.

🧨 Trump vs. Musk: Ego Meets Policy

Elon slammed Trump’s tax bill. Trump threatened to cancel his government contracts. Tesla lost $100B+ in market cap Thursday, then bounced Friday on vague “truce” vibes.

This isn’t just drama—it’s real market risk. Tesla is still in the Magnificent 7 club. Political risk premium = officially a thing again.

Watch $TSLA, SpaceX, and even $AAPL (remember, they’re tied to federal contracts too).

🧮 Fed Countdown: 9 Days to D-Day

The Fed meets June 18. No one expects a cut—but expectations for when the cut comes are on the line.

Wage growth is sticky. Inflation momentum isn’t dead. Markets are still pricing in a September pivot… but Powell could talk tough if CPI runs hot.

👀 Pay close attention to the tone in Fedspeak this week.

💥 Uncertainty Abates—Sort Of

Remember April? Every tariff headline was a volatility spike. Now? Investors are tuning out the noise—maybe too soon.

Barclays strategist Venu Krishna says markets are realizing extreme tariffs were more bark than bite. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson agrees, pointing to cooling VIX levels and a declining trade uncertainty index.

But beware complacency—this could still blow up.

🗓️ Weekly Calendar

Monday (June 9)

• NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (prior: 3.63%)

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM: +0.3% est

• Earnings: Casey’s ($CASY)

Tuesday (June 10)

• NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.9 est

• Earnings: $ASO, $PLAY, $GME, $SJM, $SFIX
  (Meme stock alert: $GME back in headlines)

Wednesday (June 11)

• CPI YoY: +2.5% est | Core CPI YoY: +2.9% est

• Monthly Core CPI: +0.3% est

• Real Avg. Earnings YoY: +1.4% prior

• MBA Mortgage Apps

• Earnings: $CHWY, $ORCL, $VRA, $VSCO

Thursday (June 12)

• PPI YoY: +2.4% | Core PPI YoY: +3.1%

• Initial Jobless Claims: watching for >250K

• Earnings: $ADBE, $LOVE, $RH
  ($ADBE = big read on enterprise software demand)

Friday (June 13)

• U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim): 52 est

• Earnings: None notable

🔮 T&G’s Take:

The market feels invincible. But we’ve seen this movie before.

✅ Jobs beat = optimism
✅ Tariffs cooling (sorta)
✅ Fed not in a rush

BUT...
⚠️ CPI surprise = sell button
⚠️ Musk vs. Trump = headline risk
⚠️ Lurking cracks in consumer and small caps

💡 This week is about confirmation: is the rally real, or is this just another sugar high?

📬 We’ll be back midweek with a full CPI breakdown and tactical pivots. Make sure you’re subscribed to T&G Premium to get the edge.