📅 Weekly Market Outlook: Earnings, Uncertainty & the Tariff Cloud

⚡ Tesla, Alphabet Lead Earnings Blitz | Market Eyes Clarity on Trump Tariffs

📊 Last Week’s Recap

S&P 500: 🔻 -1.5%
Dow Jones: 🔻 -2.6%
Nasdaq: 🔻 -2.6%
Gold: 🟢 Still near record highs
10Y Yield: 🔻 Down to 4.31%

🔥 The Big Picture

Markets are still held hostage by tariff turmoil.

President Trump’s shifting trade policy narrative, mixed Fed signals, and another avalanche of earnings reports are setting the stage for a make-or-break week. The S&P is down for the third straight week. Volatility is back, and traders are watching D.C. and earnings like hawks.

Wednesday’s massive sell-off showed how fragile things are: Nvidia's China chip bomb 💣 and Powell’s cautious tone on interest rates sparked panic.

"We need good news on the tariff front. Otherwise, recession odds go up fast." — Citi’s Stuart Kaiser

🧾 Earnings Watch: Mega Caps Take the Stage

We’re about to get a reality check from Corporate America.

🔍 Key names reporting:

• Alphabet ($GOOGL) – Thursday

• Tesla ($TSLA) – Tuesday

• Chipotle ($CMG) – Wednesday

• Boeing ($BA) – Wednesday

• Verizon ($VZ) – Tuesday

So far, only 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported. And it ain’t pretty: ✅ 71% beat EPS — but that’s below the 5-year average of 77% ✅ Beat margins also shrinking: +6.1% vs. avg +8.8%

"This quarter is all about how CEOs talk tariffs. Clarity = relief. Confusion = sell-off." — Citi

Alphabet and Tesla kick off Big Tech season. Both stocks are already battered in 2025 — down 20% and 40% YTD respectively.

Watch for guidance — not just EPS.

📉 The Bear Case Builds

Despite a minor bounce off the April 8 lows, sentiment remains shaky:

🪫 Truist downgraded U.S. equities to “less attractive” 📉 GDP forecasts keep falling 🔮 Wall Street bracing for lower EPS revisions across the board

"I’m not sure the market has priced in a recession yet." — Callie Cox, Ritholtz

Traders want two things this week: tariff clarity and a reason to believe the Fed will pivot. They're not getting either yet.

🗓 Weekly Calendar

📅 Monday

• Econ: Leading indicators (Mar): Expected -0.4%

• Earnings: Comerica ($CMA)

📅 Tuesday

• Econ: Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Apr)

• Earnings: Tesla ($TSLA), GE Aerospace ($GE), Lockheed ($LMT), Verizon ($VZ), Capital One ($COF), Enphase ($ENPH)

📅 Wednesday

• Econ: PMIs (Manufacturing, Services, Composite), New Home Sales, Beige Book

• Earnings: Chipotle ($CMG), Boeing ($BA), IBM ($IBM), NextEra ($NEE), Texas Instruments ($TXN), ServiceNow ($NOW), O’Reilly ($ORLY)

📅 Thursday

• Econ: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales

• Earnings: Alphabet ($GOOGL), Merck ($MRK), Intel ($INTC), PepsiCo ($PEP), T-Mobile ($TMUS), Union Pacific ($UNP), American Airlines ($AAL)

📅 Friday

• Econ: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

• Earnings: AbbVie ($ABBV), Phillips 66 ($PSX), Colgate ($CL)

🔎 Levels & Sectors to Watch

🔸 S&P 500 Support: 5,200 then 5,080
🔸 Resistance: 5,350 remains the key cap

Sectors to Watch:

• Tech: Huge week for mega caps. Can earnings stop the bleeding?

• Industrials: Boeing report = tariff barometer

• Healthcare: UNH fallout still hitting sentiment

• Consumer Discretionary: CMG and TSLA will show if the consumer’s still spending

🚀 What’s Next?

🎯 Will Powell finally give more guidance post-Beige Book? 🎯 Will Tesla’s margins collapse or surprise? 🎯 Does Alphabet offer any AI silver linings?

It’s make-or-break week for this market. Buckle up.

💡 Actionable Ideas

🛡 Raise cash and stay nimble — big moves ahead
📊 Watch guidance closely — earnings beats won’t be enough
💰 Gold still hot, but looks overextended short term
⚠️ Stay cautious on tech unless sentiment reverses post-earnings

🗣 Final Word

This week is about one thing: credibility.

Do companies have a handle on tariffs? Do they have a plan? Will Powell lead or keep hiding behind uncertainty?

Markets are tired of waiting. This week will show if they keep the faith — or start pricing in a recession.

📢 Your Turn:

Will this earnings season save the bulls — or is more pain coming?

👇 Drop your predictions below — and share this with your trading crew.