💥 Wall Street's Heavyweight Steps Into the Ring: JPMorgan Q2 Earnings Preview 💥
Dimon’s got the gloves on. Will the king of banks land another knockout — or is a recession uppercut incoming? 🥊
It’s earnings season, and the Street is bracing for fireworks. First up in the financials fight card? JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) — the undisputed champ of Wall Street, reporting Q2 results this Tuesday, July 15.
But this ain’t your typical “beat and raise” setup. Expectations are low, volatility is high, and the options market is lighting up. Let’s break it down 👇
🧾 The Tale of the Tape: What Wall Street Expects
📉 EPS: $4.48 expected (down 26% YoY)
📉 Revenue: $75.94B expected (down 42% YoY)
📈 Stock YTD: +22%
🎯 Avg Price Target: $293.43 (implies modest 1.8% upside)
Yes — those top-line numbers look nasty. But context is key: JPM crushed it during last year’s banking crisis chaos, and Q2 ‘24 was a monster fueled by regional bank fallout. So this YoY drop? Not exactly doom and gloom.
In fact, analysts just revised Q2 EPS UP 1.5% in the last 30 days. That means whispers are getting louder: a beat could be brewing 📈
🧠 Inside the Business: Who’s Winning, Who’s Bleeding
🔺 Card Services & Auto Lending:
+12.6% YoY to $6.76B – Consumers are still swiping 💳
🔻 Home Lending:
-2.8% YoY to $1.28B – Rate shock = mortgage freeze 🏠🥶
🔺 Asset & Wealth Management:
+15.9% YoY to $6.09B – The rich stay winning 🤑
All in all: a mixed bag. Consumer and wealthy clients are holding it down, but housing and investment banking remain soft spots. Still, the 21-day EMA trend looks 🔥 and JPM is outperforming the S&P 500 month-over-month.
🔍 Options Activity: Big Money Is Circling
Someone’s betting BIG on JPM popping. Look at this:
🟢 July 8–9:
$300 Sept 19 Calls
$397.5K & $307.1K in premium
Volumes of 750 & 537 contracts
Block trades, above the ask
💣 Translation: Smart money is loading up on out-the-money upside bets, giving themselves room through fall. With IV at 22–23%, these traders are bracing for a move.
📈 Expected earnings move: ±$11 — that puts a post-earnings range around $275–$295.
🕵️ Dark Pool Radar: Institutions Are In
The Dark Pool prints? Just as bullish:
💰 $94M+ worth of JPM shares swapped behind the scenes in the past week:
📆 July 9: $48.5M @ $283.45
📆 July 7: $45.6M @ $291.87
These aren’t meme-stock traders — this is big institutional money quietly buying in near recent highs. Where there’s smoke... there’s often upside.
📉 But It’s Not All Sunshine…
Let’s be clear: there are real risks in this tape.
❌ Insider Selling: CFO Jeremy Barnum + General Counsel Stacey Friedman sold 71,000+ shares in the past 90 days. Always a red flag heading into earnings 👀
❌ Sticky Inflation & Tariffs: The macro backdrop is still messy — rising costs and geopolitical risk could cloud the outlook.
❌ Flat Guidance? If Dimon punts on forward-looking commentary or signals economic slowdown, expect algo-triggered pain.
📊 Technicals + Trade Setup
📍 Current Spot: ~$283
📈 21-day EMA holding strong
📉 Resistance at ~$293–295 zone
📈 Support around $280 – key battleground
💡 Trade Idea:
Sept $300 Calls (same as block trades): High-risk, high-reward
OR wait for earnings dip + buy common shares near $275–280 support zone
🗣️ Final Word: All Eyes on Dimon
JPMorgan isn’t just a bank — it’s a barometer for the whole market.
From IPO pipelines to consumer credit, institutional flows to dark pool whispers, JPM’s earnings will set the tone for the rest of the Street. If Jamie Dimon delivers a confident outlook and revenue beats low expectations, expect a rip. If he wavers? Buckle up.