🛫 United Airlines Earnings Preview: Turbulent Skies, but Bulls Are Boarding 🐂
UAL reports Wednesday after the bell. Is this a buy-the-dip moment—or will delays hit the bottom line?
United Airlines ($UAL) is gearing up to drop Q2 earnings this Wednesday after market close, and Wall Street is watching closely.
The setup? Macro clouds above. Premium travel demand rising. Loyalty program flying. But labor costs and bearish revisions could clip the wings.
Still… options bulls are circling. Let’s break it all down 👇
🧾 The Street Setup
📈 EPS Estimate: $3.81
💰 Revenue Estimate: $15.37B (+2.5% YoY)
📉 Bearish tilt: 11 downward revenue revisions last 30 days
📈 Average Analyst PT: $97.32 (vs. ~$88.82 now)
🟢 YTD: +13.1% (vs. airline sector avg +7.8%)
✈️ What’s Working for UAL
✅ Premium Travel Is Surging
Premium cabin sales up +5% YoY
Loyalty revenue up +8%, MileagePlus flying past $1.2B
High-margin segments = bigger profits, less discount volume
✅ Cost Control Amid Labor Pressure
Labor costs rising (Q1: +10.5% YoY), BUT…
Fuel costs fell to $2.26/gallon (beats Delta’s $2.35)
CASM-ex up just 0.3% YoY → shows real efficiency
✅ Debt Reduction = Resilience
Net debt down 19% YoY
Liquidity up to $18.3B
✅ Zacks Earnings ESP: +3.43%
→ High probability of a beat
💥 But There’s Chop Ahead
❌ Bearish Analyst Revisions
11 analysts cut revenue estimates in last 30 days
Slower domestic bookings + Newark airport drag cited
❌ Labor Unions = Wildcard
Contract renewal talks are on the radar — risk of strike/drag on future margins
❌ Valuation Gap Shrinking
Stock is up 13% in a month
Only 9% away from average PT = limited surprise runway?
📊 Key Technicals
📍 Current Spot: ~$88.82
📈 Resistance: $91–92 zone
📉 Support: $84.50
🟠 RSI: Neutral, no divergence
UAL has cleared near-term moving averages and held the 13% rally into earnings — momentum intact, but extended.
🧠 Trade Setups to Watch
🟢 Momentum Bull Trade:
Buy Aug $90–$95 calls
Target: $97–98 on beat + guidance upside
🧊 Fade-the-Rip:
If earnings beat but bookings or macro weak = short $100 calls or vertical spreads
🧘 IV Crush Neutral Play:
Sell straddle at ATM (~$89) — premium pricing in a ~6–7% move
Works if results are strong but guidance is “meh”
📢 Final Word: Ready for Takeoff… But Pack a Parachute
UAL is threading the needle: solid margins, strong premium demand, and cost discipline — but macro clouds and analyst skepticism loom.
Still, with options bulls active, Zacks forecasting a beat, and the stock still trading at just ~7x forward EPS, this may be a tactical buy into weakness — or a short-term trade off the earnings volatility.
🗳️ Engagement CTA:
What’s your $UAL trade heading into earnings?
🔲 Long calls — MileagePlus is flying 🚀
🔲 Short the pop — analysts too bearish 📉
🔲 Buying post-earnings dip 💸
🔲 No-fly zone for me 🧘♂️
💬 Drop your UAL setups below — and tag a trader who’s flying high this season 👇