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Markets just got hit with a triple whammy this week: geopolitical fire, economic fizzle, and monetary mystery.
In this episode of the T&G Market Breakdown, we cut through the noise and decode what’s really moving markets — and where smart money’s going next.
🧨 What’s Inside:
✅ Trump threatens Iran (again) — and the markets listened this time
✅ Retail sales cratered -0.9% in May — is the consumer running out of gas?
✅ Oil prices surged past $75 — and energy stocks lit up 🔥
✅ Powell & the Fed meet Wednesday — the infamous dot plot is back
✅ Options flow shows whales hedging hard… and betting on rate cuts
✅ Dark pool action in $SPY, $XLE, $RUN, and $NVDA – here’s what it means
📉 Retail Sales: Warning Sign or Noise?
Consumers pulled back hard in May — led by a 3.5% plunge in auto sales. Tariffs + inflation + vibes = slowdown?
Yes, core sales were up 0.4%. But if people aren’t buying cars, tools, or tacos… it’s not a great look.
🛢️ Oil Spikes, Energy Pumps
Middle East tensions sent WTI above $75. Traders dove into $XLE, $XOM, and defense names like $LMT.
Translation? Wall Street’s hedging for geopolitical risk and inflation risk.
🎯 Fed Meeting Preview
Dot plot drops Wednesday. Powell’s press conference follows. Markets want rate cuts — but they might get a shrug.
If oil keeps running and retail keeps cooling… the Fed’s in a bind.
🧠 T&G’s Take:
📌 We’re not in meltdown mode — yet. But we’re on the edge.
Keep your eyes on:
🛢️ Energy prices (inflation signal)
💬 Fed tone (cut or hold?)
💸 Options flow (whales moving early)
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