🟥 S&P 500🔻-5.97% – Worst single-day drop since March 2020
🟥 Nasdaq Composite🔻-5.82% – Enters official bear market (-20% from highs)
💵 10-Year Treasury⬇️ 3.88% – Investors fleeing to safety
⚡ Bitcoin⬆️ $84,000 – Up as digital “flight to safety”
🛢️ Oil (WTI)🔻-8% – Demand shock fears surge
🔥 What Just Happened?
The “Liberation Day” tariffs just detonated the market.
After President Trump dropped unprecedented tariffs (10% baseline on all imports + steep “reciprocals” up to 54%), China retaliated with a 34% tariff on all US goods.
That one-two punch:
Torched risk sentiment
Shattered the fragile rebound
Confirmed a global trade war is here, not coming
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell held a press conference and finally acknowledged what markets already knew: inflation from tariffs is not going to be “transitory.”
$BBY: -18% – Tech retail crushed by tariff impact on electronics
$DHI, $LEN: -4%+ – Homebuilders hit by fears of rising input costs
Context: Tariffs = higher prices = inflation. Retailers can’t pass it all on. Margins get destroyed.
🛢️ Commodities & Energy Implode
Oil dropped 8% on China news
Gold pulled back from highs but still strong
Copper and other industrials got smacked
Context: This is a demand-side shock. Global slowdown = less energy usage, less infrastructure. Oil and materials are canaries in the coal mine.
🧠 The Powell Pivot
Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted:
“It is now becoming clear that tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected… Inflation may prove more persistent.”
Markets now expect 5 rate cuts this year, up from 3.
Context: The Fed can’t fight both inflation AND recession. Tariffs are pushing them toward choosing growth over price stability.
🌍 China Strikes Back
China announced:
34% tariffs on all US goods
Investigations into US companies (e.g., DuPont)
Warnings of “prolonged retaliation”
Context: China isn't blinking. And other countries (EU, Mexico) may follow. This is shaping up to be a multi-front trade war.
💬 Trump’s Response?
“Markets will boom. My policies will never change.”
On Truth Social, Trump doubled down. He also warned China “played it wrong” and teased further escalation.
🔮 Levels & Watchpoints
Why it Matters
S&P 500 – 5,120 Next major support zone — a breakdown here would extend the slide
Nasdaq – 15,400 Technical bear market confirmed — how deep does it go?
10Y Yield – 3.8% If yields keep falling, bond market is screaming recession
Bitcoin – $84K Is it finally decoupling from equities? Or just another hype spike?
⚠️ T&G Takeaways
✅ Recession risk is now front and center ✅ Fed is likely to pivot HARD — watch for emergency rhetoric ✅ Big Tech leadership is gone — rotation into defensives and bonds ✅ Global trade system? Officially broken. This isn’t 2018 redux — it’s bigger.
🗳️ Drop Your Take:
What’s your next move in this market? 🔲 Sit in cash 🔲 Buy the dip 🔲 Go short 🔲 Load up on gold/bitcoin
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