🚨 TARIFF TENSION, INFLATION STICKINESS & A WAITING GAME ON WALL STREET 🚨

💥 Market Stalls as the Fed Blames Tariffs & Trump Teases April Chaos 💥

📉 Last Week: Markets Tread Water While Waiting for the Next Blow

📰 After weeks of volatility and a Fed meeting that tried (and failed) to calm nerves, the market barely budged:

• S&P 500: +0.5%

• Dow Jones: +1%

• Nasdaq: +0.2%

Why the chill? Two words: policy uncertainty. The Fed’s holding rates. Trump’s teasing tariffs. And Wall Street? It's holding its breath.

🔮 This Week’s Market Outlook: 5 Big Things to Watch

1️⃣ Friday’s PCE Inflation Report = THE Main Event

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge drops Friday—and it could make or break Q2.

• Core PCE YoY (Feb): Expected at 2.7% (up from 2.6%)

• Monthly Core PCE: Expected +0.3%

📢 Translation: Inflation isn’t going away quietly. If this report comes in hot, rate cut hopes could get pushed even further into the second half of 2025.

💥 Powell called the inflation from tariffs “transitory”... but even he admitted: “We really can’t know that.”

2️⃣ Tariff Talk = Market’s New Boogeyman

President Trump just labeled April 2 as “Liberation Day in America.” Markets call it:
🔻 Uncertainty Bomb

No one knows what’s coming—tariffs? Trade war 2.0? Retaliation?

• Nike & FedEx already warned: Profits could take a hit

• Wall Street’s waiting for clarity... and getting none

🧨 Until we know what Trump plans to actually do, expect more chop and hesitation.

3️⃣ The Fed’s Message? Stay Calm & Wait It Out

The Fed held rates last week and said two cuts are still on the table for 2025. But behind the scenes?

• Inflation forecast: ✅ Higher

• Growth forecast: ✅ Lower

• Confidence in outlook: ❌ Shaky

Wall Street strategist summary: “The Fed is in the same boat as the market: no clue what happens next.”

4️⃣ Less Froth = Healthier Market Setup?

Citi’s “Levkovich Index” shows sentiment pulled back from euphoric levels.

• Current reading: 0.36 (below the 0.38 “euphoria” threshold)

• Translation: Some of the FOMO has cooled off.

📉 After a 10% S&P 500 correction, this may be a better entry point for long-term bulls—if tariffs don’t blow it all up.

5️⃣ Corporate Earnings: Retail & Housing in Focus

🔍 Not a blockbuster week for earnings, but watch these names:

• 🛍️ Dollar Tree (DLTR) – Consumer demand check

• 👟 Lululemon (LULU) – Premium retail thermometer

• 🏠 KB Home (KBH) – Housing sentiment barometer

If these companies sound nervous, it’s game over for the “resilient consumer” narrative.

📆 Weekly Calendar: Data Drops & Earnings You Can’t Ignore

MONDAY
📊 Manufacturing/Services PMIs (March)
🏗️ KB Home earnings

TUESDAY
📈 FHFA home prices (Jan)
🧠 Consumer Confidence (Mar)
🕹️ GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM) earnings

WEDNESDAY
📉 Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
🛒 Dollar Tree, Chewy, Jefferies earnings

THURSDAY
📊 GDP (Q4 Final)
🧾 Jobless Claims
👕 Lululemon earnings

FRIDAY
🔥 PCE INFLATION (Feb)
🧠 Final Consumer Sentiment (March)

⚠️ The Big Picture: This Market’s on Ice Until April 2

Powell played it safe. Inflation is still hot. Trump is tweeting chaos.
The market is in a holding pattern, waiting for clarity that may never come.

But don’t sleep on it: Friday’s PCE report could reignite the fire—up or down.

📢 Final Word:

We’re in a weird spot—less froth, more fear, and a giant policy fog. This week is all about inflation signals and Trump's next move.

🔥 Are you positioning for a bounce… or bracing for the next leg down?
Comment below—what’s your play this week? Long, short, or sidelined? 👇