🧨 TARIFF TANTRUM: Will Trump’s “Liberation Day” Blow Up the Market?

📉 Sticky inflation, slowing jobs, and a tariff bombshell—Wall Street’s walking into a minefield this week.

Brace yourself—this week could get ugly. After stocks took a nosedive to close out Q1, the tape isn’t getting any easier.

With Trump’s tariff bazooka locked and loaded for Wednesday and a key jobs report on deck for Friday, traders are staring down a week packed with landmines.

📉 Last Week Was Brutal:

• S&P 500: -2.97%

• Nasdaq: -3.9% 💀

• Dow: -2%

Mega caps got smoked, rate-cut bets cooled, and fears of stagflation started creeping into the conversation. Not a great look heading into April.

🔥 What’s Moving the Market

1️⃣ Trump’s “Liberation Day” – Tariffs Round 2?

President Trump is expected to drop reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday—and Wall Street might not be ready for what’s coming.

• Consensus: ~9% tariff expected

• Goldman Sachs: Could be closer to 18% 😳

• Admin officials hint this is just a starting point for negotiations

📉 What it means:

• Expect volatility in autos and semis: $TSLA, $GM, $F, $AAPL, $NVDA

• Tech-heavy indexes like $QQQ could get hit again if tariffs shock to the upside

“This isn’t something markets can dismiss.” — Barclays Research

2️⃣ Jobs Report Friday – Make or Break?

The March jobs report is coming in hot on Friday—and it might decide if “soft landing” hopes stay alive.

• Estimates: +135K jobs (vs. +151K prior)

• Unemployment: 4.1% expected

• Wage growth: +0.3% MoM, +3.9% YoY

🧠 Morgan Stanley says the risk is asymmetric:
📉 A weak number = stagflation fears explode
📈 A strong surprise = could calm recession worries (for now)

3️⃣ Earnings Guidance Is Already Turning Ugly

👀 68 S&P 500 companies have issued negative Q1 guidance so far. That’s:

• 🔺 Above the 5-year avg (57)

• 🔺 Above the 10-year avg (62)

Translation: Wall Street entered 2025 too optimistic—and companies are now walking those expectations back before earnings season even kicks off on April 11.

📊 Technical Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 5,500 is support. A breakdown here could take us to 5,360 real quick.

• Nasdaq: 17,700 is critical—losing it could trigger algo-driven selling.

• VIX: Back above 17 = fear creeping in.

💡 Trades & Takeaways

✅ If tariffs come in hot:
→ Fade tech, look at $SQQQ or $IWM puts

✅ If jobs data is soft:
→ Rotate into defensives: $XLP, $XLU, $XLV

✅ If we dodge both bullets:
→ Risk-on bounce led by $NVDA, $MSFT, $META

📅 Key Events This Week

🗓 Wednesday – Liberation Day
🚨 Trump’s tariff announcement expected

🗓 Friday – Jobs Report
👷‍♂️ +135K expected | Unemployment: 4.1% | Wages: +3.9% YoY

🧾 Also on deck:

• ADP private payrolls (Wed)

• ISM manufacturing & services (Tues/Thurs)

• JOLTS, factory orders, durable goods

📣 Sound Off!

📊 Poll: If Trump drops double the expected tariffs this week, what happens next?

🔲 Stocks tank—Fed won’t save us
🔲 Buy the dip—Powell blinks
🔲 Nothing burger—just more noise

💬 Drop your game plan for “Liberation Day” below 👇
Are you hedged or hunting setups? Let’s trade it out.