T&G Weekly Outlook: Nvidia Earnings, PCE Inflation Data, and a Fresh Look at the Economy 📉💥

Markets Brace for Nvidia Earnings, Inflation Data, and Economic Updates—Expect Volatility as Key Metrics Roll In

The market’s been holding its breath, folks. After a week of disappointing data and a bit of jitters, it’s time to brace for what’s ahead. This week, we’ll see earnings from tech’s darling Nvidia (NVDA), and a crucial inflation report from the Fed. So, what’s in store for Wall Street? Here’s what to keep an eye on:

Nvidia Earnings & What it Means for the Market 🤖

After a year of explosive growth, Nvidia is taking center stage this week. The company, which has become synonymous with AI, will report its earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $0.84 per share, a 63% year-over-year jump, and revenue to hit $38.26 billion (up 73%). But here’s the catch: analysts are watching closely for CEO Jensen Huang’s take on AI demand and rising competition, especially from China’s DeepSeek. Why does this matter? Nvidia’s results could signal whether the tech sector can continue its momentum, or if we’re in for a slow patch after the hot run.

What to watch for:

• Earnings and revenue: Are we on track, or has AI hype peaked?

• CEO commentary: Will Nvidia keep dominating, or is the competition catching up?

Fed’s Inflation Data on Friday: The Moment of Truth 🏦💰

Brace yourselves—Friday is going to be pivotal. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the “core” PCE, is dropping, and it could stir up some serious market reactions. Economists are expecting core PCE to cool slightly to 2.6% year-over-year in January (down from 2.8% in December). With inflation still high and the labor market solid, don’t expect any interest rate cuts from the Fed just yet. Investors will want to see if the Fed is getting closer to their target—or if inflation is just too sticky to fight off.

Why this matters:

• If inflation remains sticky, rate cuts might be off the table for now.

• Markets are betting on a rate cut in June, but any surprises could shake things up.

The Economic Picture: A Little Gloomy 🌥️

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows in the economy. On top of inflation worries, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index hit its lowest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, US business activity is slowing, with growth barely holding on. S&P Global’s flash PMI showed a worrying drop, signaling businesses are getting jittery as the year goes on. Between rising inflation and policy uncertainty, the economy is looking more cautious.

Why it matters:

• Lower sentiment = less consumer spending, which could lead to slower growth.

• Businesses aren’t feeling great either—expect potential earnings misses if sentiment doesn’t pick up.

What’s Happening in Earnings? 📊

Along with Nvidia, we’ll see reports from other heavyweights like Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), and Salesforce (CRM). Analysts are eager to see if these big-box retailers can keep pace with the strong economy or if the slowdown is hitting even them.

What to expect:

• Home Depot & Lowe’s: Will the housing market slump hit these giants?

• Salesforce: Is the cloud still king?

Weekly Calendar 📅

Monday

• Economic Data:

  • Chicago Fed activity index, January (0.15 prior)

  • Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, February (14.1 prior)

• Earnings:

  • Chegg (CHGG)

  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

  • Diamondback Energy (FANG)

  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

  • Hims & Hers (HIMS)

  • Riot (RIOT)

  • Trip.com (TCOM)

  • Zoom (ZM)

Tuesday

• Economic Data:

  • FHFA house price index, December (+0.3% prior)

  • S&P CoreLogic CS 20-city year-over-year, December (+4.33% prior)

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence, February (103.5 expected, 104.1 prior)

  • Richmond Fed manufacturing index, February (-4 prior)

• Earnings:

  • American Tower (AMT)

  • AMC (AMC)

  • Cava (CAVA)

  • First Solar (FSLR)

  • The Home Depot (HD)

  • Instacart (CART)

  • Intuit (INTU)

  • Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP)

  • Krispy Kreme (DNUT)

  • Lemonade (LMND)

  • Lucid (LCID)

  • Planet Fitness (PLNT)

  • Workday (WDAY)

Wednesday

• Economic Data:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending Feb. 21 (-6.6 prior)

  • New home sales, January (-2.7% expected, +3.6% previously)

  • Building permits, January final (+0.1% prior)

• Earnings:

  • Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)

  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

  • C3.ai (AI)

  • Clear Secure (YOU)

  • Lowe's (LOW)

  • Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)

  • NRG Energy (NRG)

  • Salesforce (CRM)

  • Snowflake (SNOW)

  • Stellantis (STLA)

Thursday

• Economic Data:

  • Fourth quarter GDP, second revision (+2.3% annualized rate expected, +2.3% previously)

  • Fourth quarter personal consumption, second revision (+4.2% previously)

  • Initial jobless claims, week ending Feb. 22 (219,000 previously)

  • Durable goods orders, January preliminary (+2.2% expected, -2.2% previously)

• Earnings:

  • Archer Aviation (ACHR)

  • Clover (CLOV)

  • Duolingo (DUOL)

  • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

  • Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

  • SoundHound AI (SOUN)

  • Vistra Corp. (VST)

Friday

• Economic Data:

  • PCE inflation, January (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously)

  • PCE inflation, year-over-year, January (+2.5% expected, +2.6% previously)

  • "Core" PCE, month-over-month, January (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously)

  • "Core" PCE, year-over-year, January (+2.6% expected, +2.8% previously)

  • MNI Chicago PMI, February (39.5 prior)

In Summary 🔎

This week’s lineup is jam-packed with crucial data. From Nvidia’s AI-driven earnings to inflation updates, the market will be trying to find its footing amidst uncertainty. Will the Fed’s inflation data push the market to new highs? Or will signs of slowing growth take the wind out of the bulls’ sails?

Get ready for a wild ride. 📉 Stay tuned and stay sharp!