T&G Weekly Outlook: March Kicks Off with Major Economic Crossroads 🚧 Jobs, Retail, and Tariffs in the Spotlight 📉💥
Investors brace for a pivotal week with the jobs report, retail earnings, and the looming tariff showdown—can the US economy keep its momentum? 🔥
A Pivotal Start to March: Jobs, Retail Earnings, and Tariffs Hold the Key 🧐
As we step into March, it’s clear that this month could set the stage for the rest of 2025—especially when it comes to the US economy. All eyes are on the February jobs report set for release on Friday, along with retail earnings from some of the biggest names in the game. On top of that, the US faces a tariff showdown with Mexico, Canada, and China all set to get hit with new levies starting March 4.
So, what’s in store this week? Let’s break it down. 💥
🚨 Jobs Report: Is the US Labor Market Still a Beacon of Hope?
The February jobs report could very well be a make-or-break moment for the market this week. Expectations are modest—143,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. But let's not get too comfortable. For months, we've seen early warning signs of a slowdown in the labor market, and a big jump in initial jobless claims last week only adds fuel to the fire.
Economists are eyeing any cracks in the armor, with continuing claims climbing and fewer job openings being posted. Add to that the looming government employment cutbacks (thanks to Musk and Trump’s efforts to downsize the federal workforce), and the jobs report could be a wake-up call that things aren’t as rosy as they seem. If the numbers start showing a shift in employment trends, buckle up—this could be the first sign of trouble in the labor market. 😬
🛍️ Retail Earnings: Consumers Feeling the Pinch?
While the job market's looking shaky, it's the retail sector that could really drop some truth bombs this week. Retail giants like Target (TGT), Costco (COST), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) will report earnings, and let's just say, their numbers could be a mixed bag. Here’s the play-by-play:
Costco: The stock is famously expensive, but for good reason—its business model works. Despite solid growth, signs of consumer caution have surfaced. In Costco’s case, people are still shopping, but they're doing so with more intent and restraint. With inflation eating into wallets, can Costco keep its high margins, or will the consumer slowdown catch up to it?
Target: After a tough quarter and losing ground to its bigger rivals (hello, Walmart), Target’s stock is already down over 8% this year. The company’s tried to reassure investors with holiday sales numbers, but without adjusting their profit outlook, it’s a tough sell. The big question: can Target hold its ground, or is it simply a casualty of the larger retail landscape that’s getting increasingly price-sensitive? 🤔
Abercrombie & Fitch: Now here’s where things get fun. Abercrombie has managed to ride the wave of Gen Z and millennial nostalgia to become one of the best-performing apparel stocks of the last five years. The company’s pivot to a lifestyle brand has worked wonders, and its stock has surged over 600%. But with inflation squeezing budgets, will the consumer’s desire for fashionable millennial throwback items remain strong? Or is the party over? 👚🕺
🛑 Tariffs Set to Shake Things Up: Trump’s Trade Moves Could Be the Next Shock to the System 💥
If the jobs report and retail earnings weren’t enough to keep you on edge, here’s another wildcard: tariffs. Starting March 4, Mexico, Canada, and China will be hit with new tariffs, and the market could take a hit. While many are hoping for some form of trade peace, Trump’s stance is clear—25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, plus more tariffs on China.
This is a big deal for investors, especially with global supply chains already under pressure. Will these levies send the market spiraling into uncertainty? Or will the US economy push through the storm and come out the other side relatively unscathed? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure: the tariffs are coming, and it’s anyone’s guess whether they’ll rattle investor confidence. ⚔️📦
🔮 What It All Means for the Market: March’s First Week Could Define the Month
With uncertainty clouding the market, March is shaping up to be a pivotal month. From the jobs report to retail earnings, and the impact of new tariffs, the market’s tone will be set in the first week. Investors are grappling with rising inflation, slowing job growth, and a potentially volatile consumer sector. Toss in some trade tension, and the first few days of March will offer critical insights into whether the economic expansion can continue or if we’ll see a slowdown.
But the big question remains: will the US economy continue to defy the odds, or is the growth scare real? As we enter the first week of March, the answers will start to take shape. Investors need to pay close attention to every piece of data coming their way this week—there’s no room for missed signals. 📉⚡
What’s on the Economic Calendar? 📅
Here’s a quick look at the week ahead. These key data points and earnings could give investors the clarity (or confusion) they’re looking for. Keep your eyes peeled:
Monday:
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday:
Earnings from Target, Best Buy, AutoZone, and more!
Wednesday:
ADP Private Payrolls
Earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker, Campbell Soup, and more!
Thursday:
Trade Balance and Jobless Claims
Earnings from Costco, Kroger, Macy's, and more!
Friday:
The big one—Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Will the jobs market continue its streak of resilience? 🤷♂️💥
🚀 What’s Next? Brace for Impact
As we move into March, the stage is set for some major decisions in the market. The first week of the month is packed with important data releases and earnings reports that will likely set the tone for the month. Will inflation, trade tensions, and a softening labor market send stocks tumbling? Or will the US economy continue to shrug off the fears of a slowdown? Stay tuned, because this week is only the beginning of what could be a very eventful month. 🌪️