T&G Weekly Outlook: Jobs Jitters Loom After Markets Ring In 2025 With a Fizzle 📈
Tesla’s tumble, no ‘Santa’ bounce, and a big showdown in the labor market awaits. Buckle up, folks. 🎢🔥
Welcome to 2025, where investors are stumbling into a brand-new year with a mild hangover. Forget the confetti—Wall Street’s starting the party in reverse gear, with the major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) each slipping about 1.5% or more in the first few sessions. That’s not exactly how anyone wanted to ring in the New Year. 😬
But fear not: The first full trading week of 2025 is here with a big storyline—jobs, jobs, and more jobs.
The Week’s Main Event: December Jobs Report 🍿
Friday Morning: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unveils December’s nonfarm payrolls, expected to clock in at +153,000. That’s down from last month’s 227,000 but still decent.
Unemployment Rate: Likely at 4.2%, steady from before. That suggests the labor market is neither crashing nor soaring—just gradually pumping the brakes.
Why It Matters: Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the labor market is cooling “gradually and in an orderly way.” Investors, itching for more rate cuts, want proof the economy isn’t overheating. If wage inflation’s still red-hot, that might force the Fed to pump the brakes on further easing. ⚠️
Big Picture: The Fed just cut rates three times in 2024 but hinted it wants to slow down. Another hot jobs number might keep them hawkish. A weak one might get them to slash rates again in early spring. Either way, Friday’s data is huge.
Tech Drama at CES: All Eyes on Nvidia 🖥️
CES 2025: Kicks off Monday. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang leads the charge with a keynote. Stock watchers will be glued to see if the chip king addresses rumored Blackwell chip supply snags.
Nvidia Stock: Rose over 150% in 2024, but December’s slump (down about 1% since Q3 results) rattled nerves. Analysts blame concerns over China’s trade restrictions and a product transition from Hopper to Blackwell.
Other News: Rival AMD? Apple’s rumored VR gadgets? AI hype all around? Expect it at CES—this is where the next wave of gadgets sets the year’s tone.
Sorry, Santa… You Ghosted Us 🎅
Santa Claus Rally: Typically, the S&P 500 pops ~1.3% from Dec. 24 to the first two trading days of January. Not this time. The index fell ~0.5%.
Warning Sign?: Some strategists see a no-show Santa as a prelude to a meh January and a more “average” year. Others say psh, 2024 didn’t get Santa either, and stocks rose 24%. Trends can break.
Takeaway: The S&P 500 is still up over 20% the past 12 months, so a minor stutter step doesn’t doom 2025. But sentiment got dinged, and negativity can snowball if January brings more red. ❄️
Rate Angst & Rising Yields 💵
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.6%, a 40+ basis-point jump in December alone.
Higher yields often mean more pressure on growth stocks—especially those AI darlings with rich valuations.
Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz thinks if jobs slow down, yields may fall back, letting equities “exhale” again.
Translation: A cooler labor market might be good for stocks now that everyone’s worried about fewer Fed cuts.
Eager Eyes on Corporate: Delta & Constellation 🎉
Delta (DAL): After a year of surging travel demand, can the airline giant keep flying high as consumers weigh inflation?
Constellation Brands (STZ): Beer, wine, and spirits—a tricky category if consumer spending dulls. They’re big in premium beverages—did holiday sales help?
And… keep an ear open for any quick announcements from the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Tech bigshots love to slip in a surprise.
Weekly Calendar Highlights
Monday: Factory Orders & Durable Goods (November). Are manufacturers tapping the brakes or the gas?
Tuesday: JOLTS job openings (November), ISM Services. Another read on labor and the huge services sector.
Wednesday: ADP Private Payrolls (December), FOMC Minutes. Will the Fed’s last meeting notes show hawks or doves? 🦅🕊️
Thursday: Initial jobless claims. Always a must-watch.
Friday: The Big Dog—Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment rate. Hourly earnings. The market mover.
Final Word
The year might have started with a whimper—no Santa bounce, higher yields, Tesla drama—but the big test is the labor report. If the job market stays calm, the Fed might chill. If not, buckle up for more volatility. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s CES cameo could light up the AI hype again. 🏆
Stay tuned. 2025 is just revving up, and this week’s reading on jobs might decide if markets keep sputtering or zoom into second gear. 📈✨