T&G Weekly Outlook: Big Tech Earnings, the Fed’s Next Move, and Trump’s Growing Influence: What You Need to Know This Week 📅💥
Earnings season ramps up with the biggest players reporting, and the Fed faces pressure as Trump continues to shape the market 🚀💬
What’s Coming This Week: Big Tech Earnings, a Critical Fed Meeting, and Trump’s Market Moves 📈💬
After a strong start to 2025, marked by the best first four trading days under a new president since Ronald Reagan, the stock market is gearing up for a jam-packed week that will test the rally. Investors are bracing for a wave of major earnings reports, key economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on interest rates. The week also marks Trump’s first full week in office, and with his policies already shaping the market, all eyes will be on how his moves will continue to influence investor sentiment. 🏛️🔥
Big Tech Earnings: The ‘Magnificent Seven’ in Focus 💻💸
This week is a crucial one for earnings season, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to report. Among them, the tech giants—Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA)—will take center stage. These companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent Seven," are expected to play a significant role in the broader market’s performance.
The overall earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is projected at 12.7% for Q4, but the real action is in Big Tech. The Magnificent Seven are anticipated to see earnings growth of 21.7% compared to the 9.7% growth expected from the rest of the S&P 500. This group’s performance will be a key indicator of the market’s health, and analysts are closely watching these reports for signs of any slowing or acceleration in growth. Notably, growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year after a potential slowdown in the first half. 📊💥
Federal Reserve Meeting: What Will Powell Say? 🏦💬
The Federal Reserve will dominate the economic news cycle this week, with the central bank set to announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. While no change in interest rates is expected, the spotlight will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, which often triggers market volatility.
Despite the anticipation surrounding Powell’s remarks, JPMorgan’s chief economist Michael Feroli predicts a relatively muted response. He expects Powell to adopt a “duck and cover” approach, providing little more than a statement on the current monetary policy and remaining cautious about future moves. However, Trump’s earlier comments at the World Economic Forum—where he stated that he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately”—have added a layer of complexity to the Fed’s outlook. Will Powell push back on Trump’s pressure? Investors will be watching closely. 👀📝
Trump’s Influence: What’s His Impact on the Markets? 🇺🇸💥
President Trump is already showing his impact on the stock market in his second term. The first week of Trump 2.0 saw a rally, with investors relieved by the absence of immediate tariff hikes. His "Stargate" AI investment announcement, a $500 billion initiative to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the U.S., sent tech stocks like Oracle (ORCL) and Nvidia (NVDA) soaring.
Citi strategist Scott Chronert noted that the market saw less disruption than expected, with implied volatility in rates, the dollar, and oil all moving lower. However, while markets are currently rallying, Trump’s policy shifts on trade, tariffs, and interest rates will continue to stir up investor uncertainty. With major decisions ahead and market-moving comments expected, Trump’s influence will remain a key factor in market sentiment. 📈🔮
Economic Health Check: Key Data to Watch 📊🧐
This week will also deliver key economic data, giving investors a snapshot of the U.S. economy.
Thursday will bring the first estimate of Q4 GDP, with expectations of 2.6% growth, slightly lower than the 3.1% growth seen in the previous quarter.
Friday will feature the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists are expecting a year-over-year "core" PCE of 2.8%, unchanged from November, with a 0.2% increase over the month.
These reports, combined with the Fed’s actions, will provide insight into the ongoing health of the economy and the inflationary pressures that could impact future monetary policy. As RBC’s Blake Gwinn notes, this data dump, alongside Trump’s policies, could leave the Fed “playing third fiddle” in the markets. 📉💭
The Week Ahead: What to Expect in Economic Data and Earnings 📅📊
As earnings season heats up, here’s a look at the key events and reports to watch:
Monday
Economic Data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales
Earnings: AT&T, Nucor, SoFi, Western Alliance
Tuesday
Economic Data: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence
Earnings: Boeing, General Motors, Lockheed Martin, Starbucks, Sysco
Wednesday
Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications, FOMC Rate Decision
Earnings: Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, ADP, IBM, Progressive, T-Mobile
Thursday
Economic Data: Q4 GDP Estimate, Core PCE
Earnings: Apple, Blackstone, Caterpillar, UPS, Visa
Friday
Economic Data: Core PCE Index, Employment Cost Index
Earnings: Chevron, Colgate, ExxonMobil, Phillips 66
What’s at Stake? 🔮
This week’s economic calendar is packed with important data that will shape market sentiment and expectations for 2025. With Big Tech earnings in the spotlight, a potentially impactful Fed meeting, and Trump’s continued influence on the markets, investors will need to stay agile. The S&P 500’s early-year gains are being tested, and the outcome of these events will be pivotal in setting the tone for the rest of the year.
Will Big Tech continue to lead the charge, or will the broader market finally catch up? Will Trump’s policies and the Fed’s decisions lead to volatility or stability? The answers to these questions will set the stage for what’s to come in the weeks ahead. 📈🎯
Stay tuned—this week promises to be a pivotal moment for investors!