Happy New Year, traders! 🎉 Welcome Back & This Episode Is Presented By
2025 just kicked off, and the markets are acting like they partied a little too hard over the holidays. If you thought we’d glide into the new year on a magic carpet of gains, think again. The market’s been slouching like it forgot to hit the gym after New Year’s Eve.
Here’s what went down and what’s on the radar for the week ahead. 👇
📉 Santa Claus Rally? More Like Santa Snoozed
You know the drill — historically, the market pops during the last five trading days of December through the first two days of January. This time around? Santa ghosted us. The S&P 500 actually dipped 0.5% during the stretch.
Ouch.
Why should you care?
LPL Financial says when the market doesn’t rally during Santa’s window, the following year can be choppy. But let’s not hit the panic button just yet. Last year didn’t have a rally either, and the market still clocked in a juicy 24% gain.
👉 Moral of the story: Santa’s overrated.
📊 Jobs Report = Market's Saving Grace?
Listen, this week’s jobs report is the VIP of market movers. The Fed’s watching it closer than I watch my DoorDash tracker.
Here’s the vibe:
153K new jobs expected in December (down from 227K in November).
Unemployment? Staying put at 4.2%.
The labor market cooled in 2024, but it’s been gradual. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s already given his "we’re chill for now" speech. But if Friday’s jobs numbers come in softer than anticipated, the Fed might hit the “cut rates” button faster than we expect.
👉 TL;DR: The market’s fate might rest in the hands of your cousin who just started bartending.
🧑💻 CES = Nvidia’s Victory Lap?
Nvidia (NVDA) is about to steal the spotlight at CES, kicking off with a keynote by CEO Jensen Huang. You can almost hear the AI hype train rolling in.
Nvidia’s status update:
Ended 2024 up 150% (yeah, seriously).
Down about 1% since November, mostly because of shipping delays on their shiny new Blackwell chips.
But don’t panic. Analysts say Nvidia’s just “growing,” like an awkward teenager who suddenly needs size 13 shoes. Expect some wild AI announcements that could get the stock moving again.
👉 Hot take: If you don’t own Nvidia, CES might make you regret that.
🔮 Where Does This Leave Us?
Here’s the big picture:
Tech is leading the comeback charge (Tesla and Nvidia are pulling the Nasdaq back from the grave).
Interest rates are still sitting near 4.6% on the 10-year Treasury, but a weaker jobs report could bring those rates down.
If Nvidia pops at CES and the jobs report delivers, we could finally see some green on the board.
📅 Key Calendar Highlights This Week:
Monday:
Factory orders (Nov) – Keep an eye on this for supply chain vibes.
Tuesday:
Job openings (Nov) – 7.7M expected. Will this show labor cooling?
Friday (D-Day):
Non-farm payrolls (Dec): 153K jobs expected.
Unemployment: Sticking at 4.2%.
Hourly wages: Looking for +0.3% growth.
📣 Final Thought:
2025 is off to a rocky start, but it’s all part of the game. The market’s catching its breath, but if Nvidia drops bombs at CES and the jobs report softens, we could be off to the races.
Hang tight, hit those alerts, and keep stacking gains. 🚀
👉 Let me know – what’s your first big trade of 2025?
Cheers,
Ben
Trades & Gains
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