Earnings, Explosions & the Inflation Inflection: Your Week on Wall Street šš
Nvidia steps up. Trump stirs the pot. Powell watches the PCE print like a hawk
š
The Setup: Short Week, Big Stakes
Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day šŗšøābut donāt let the long weekend fool you. The rest of the week is locked and loaded with market landmines:
š $NVDA earnings (a.k.a. the AI crown jewel reports)
š„ Trumpās tariff circus, round three
šø Fridayās PCE inflation dataāJerome Powellās emotional support stat
Stocks just logged their worst week in months thanks to rising yields, fiscal freakouts, and trade war déjà vu. If you thought the drama was over, guess again.
š Macro Mess: Yields, Tariffs & That $4T Tax Bomb
Last week, the market got body-slammed by:
š§¾ Trumpās tax bill pushing the deficit past āYOLOā territory
š² A threatened 25% tariff on Apple iPhones not made in the U.S.
šŖšŗ A 50% tariff warning on EU goods starting June 1
The result?
S&P 500: -2.6%
Nasdaq: -2.4%
Dow: -2.4%
Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield stayed stubbornly above 5%āthe highest since flip phones were hot. The 10-year yield? 4.6% and climbing.
Bond traders are basically screaming: āSTOP SPENDING!ā
š¤ All Eyes on $NVDA: Can Jensen Save the Market?
Wednesday after the close, Nvidia ($NVDA) steps into the earnings arena. Expectations are nuclear:
š° EPS: $0.88
š Revenue: $43.3B
Last year? Just $26B. No biggie.
But hereās the twistādespite fueling nearly 17% of S&P 500 gains since ChatGPT launched, Nvidia is flat this year. Blame it on:
š¤ AI bubble fears
š§ Chip supply noise
šØš³ Tariff anxiety
Wall Street needs this print to be perfect. Anything less and the market might just short-circuit.
š Inflation Watch: Itās PCE Week, Baby
Friday brings the Fedās fave inflation metric: Core PCE.
š Expectations:
Core PCE (YoY): 2.5%
Core PCE (MoM): 0.1%
Itās not quite āmission accomplishedā for Powell, but a soft number could cool the bond tantrum and give stocks some breathing room.
BofA says June data will show the first real signs of tariff-induced inflationābecause yes, even memes cost more when there's a trade war.
š§ Wall Streetās Vibe Check
Despite last weekās carnage, earnings season hasnāt been all bad:
šŖ S&P 500 earnings growth: +12.9% YoY
š§® Only 8 companies pulled guidance (vs. 185 in Q1 2020)
Thatās helped big names like Morgan Stanleyās Mike Wilson stick to their S&P 6,500 target. Because if you canāt beat inflation, might as well inflate valuations too.
š T&G Watchlist: Plays to Watch This Week
$NVDA ā King of AI. Wednesday will be electric ā”
$AAPL ā Tariff target. If Tim Cook doesnāt build a factory in Boise, watch out š
$SPY / $QQQ ā Support levels in play: 5,750 and 18,600
$TYX / $TNX ā Yields still in charge š
$COST / $CRM / $OKTA ā Earnings test for consumer & cloud š¦āļø
$BTC ā Will crypto dodge the risk-off wreckage?
šļø Week-at-a-Glance: Whatās Coming Up
Monday ā May 27
š Markets closed for Memorial Day
Tuesday ā May 28
š Data: FHFA House Prices (Mar), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods
š¼ Earnings: AutoZone ($AZO), Box ($BOX), Okta ($OKTA)
Wednesday ā May 29
š Data: MBA Mortgage Apps, Richmond Fed, FOMC Minutes
š¼ Earnings: Nvidia ($NVDA), Salesforce ($CRM), Macyās ($M), e.l.f. Beauty ($ELF), C3.AI ($AI), Dickās ($DKS)
Thursday ā May 30
š Data: GDP Q1 2nd revision, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales
š¼ Earnings: Costco ($COST), Best Buy ($BBY), Dell ($DELL), Ulta ($ULTA), Marvell ($MRVL), Foot Locker ($FL)
Friday ā May 31
š Data: PCE Inflation (April), Core PCE, UMich Sentiment Final
š¼ Earnings: Canopy Growth ($CGC)
š® T&Gās Take
Youāve got Nvidiaās earnings, Trumpās Twitter finger, and inflation data in a four-day trading week?
Grab popcorn, not just BBQ.
This week will set the tone for the rest of Q2. One bad report or one reckless tariff tweet and volatility is back on the table.
š¢ Donāt sleep on this one. The macro is loud, and the microās about to scream.
ā
š„ Are you long $NVDA into earnings? Betting on more tariffs? Let us know in the comments š
Thank you, Ben.
For anyone interested, here are my Apr PCE inflation estimates with a perfect average error: https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/apr-2025-pce-inflation-estimate?r=1r1n6n