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CPI Breakdown: Soft Landing or Hot Shock? 🔥📈

Inflation’s June Showdown: Will the Fed Get a Soft-Landing Encore—or a Sizzling Sequel?

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT (June 2025 CPI)

  • Headline CPI: 🔺 0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY

  • Core CPI (ex-food & energy): 🔺 0.2% MoM / +2.9% YoY

  • Shelter: 🔺 0.2% (primary driver)

  • Gasoline: 🔺 1.0% (energy index +0.9%)

  • Food: 🔺 0.3% (groceries +0.3% / restaurants +0.4%)

🔥 WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKET?
Landlord Love Affair: Shelter costs continue their reign—rent, mortgage, tears.
Energy U-Turn: After a May dip, gasoline and electricity crank up the heat.
Groceries vs. Gourmet: Bakery down 0.2%—but eggs and coffee deliver a price punch.
Tariff Tsunami: Furnishings, apparel & toys—imports carry a shock fee.

📈 TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH

  • 10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.00–4.10% range—break above 4.15% = hawkish surge

  • S&P 500 Support: 4,450—bounces here fuel soft-landing bets

  • Nasdaq Resistance: 15,200—tech’s make-or-break zone

🚀 ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS

  1. Tech & Growth: If tariffs ease and shelter cools, buy the dip in $NVDA & $AAPL.

  2. Financials: With yields flirting near 4.10%, trim into $JPM or $GS rally.

  3. Defensives: Staples & utilities (think $WMT, $DUK) as safe harbors if volatility spikes.

  4. Energy Plays: Consider short-dated calls on $XOM / $CVX—energy prices are back in play.

  5. Options Strategy: Sell in-line straddles on XLF (financials) or buy tail hedges on QQQ puts.

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