🌯 $CMG Earnings: Burritos, Tariffs, and a Side of Consumer Doomscrolling

Chipotle Reports Wednesday — Is This the End of Fast-Casual’s Recession-Proof Era?

The lettuce costs more. The avocado is tariffed. And your favorite guac-smeared chain is about to face its biggest macro test yet.

Chipotle ($CMG) reports Q2 earnings this Wednesday, and Wall Street is watching with hot sauce in one hand and the sell button in the other. After a spicy multi-year run — up over 50% since 2024 — investors now want proof that this fast-casual juggernaut can keep the margins rolling even as consumers hit the brakes.

So is Chipotle still inflation-proof? Or is this the quarter when the cult burrito brand finally feels the sting of a broke America?

Let’s unwrap it 👇

🧾 Q2 2025 Earnings Snapshot

📈 Revenue: $3.1B expected (↑4.4% YoY)
💸 EPS: $0.32 forecast (↓5.9% YoY)
🌯 Same-Store Sales: Trending flat to down again (↓0.4% in Q1)
🚶‍♂️ Customer Traffic: Still declining — down 2.3% last quarter
📦 Food, Beverage & Packaging Costs: +6.4% YoY = $930M+
🧑‍🍳 Labor Costs: Forecast at $789M (↑10.2%)
📉 Tariffs: Expected to hit gross margins by 20bps this quarter

Translation: More revenue, but way less profit — and it’s not just the cost of steak to blame.

🚨 Why This Earnings Report Matters for Markets

This isn’t just about burritos. It’s about consumer stress in the high-income bracket.

Chipotle isn’t McDonald’s. Its core customer isn’t paycheck-to-paycheck — they’re tech workers, college grads, and suburban professionals who pay $13.50 for a burrito because “it’s clean, fast, and not fast food.” If that consumer is pulling back? Uh oh.

We’ve already seen warnings from Starbucks, Domino’s, and Target. Chipotle could be next to confirm a widespread consumer cooldown — one the Fed and market bulls don’t want to admit is real.

And with CMG trading at a forward P/E of 44.8, a miss or weak guide could be a big gut-punch to growth stocks across consumer discretionary.