📉 Buckle Up: Wall Street’s Worst Week Since 2020 Sets the Stage for a Volatile Earnings Season
Tariffs, Bear Market Fears, and a Fed on Ice – Here’s What to Watch This Week
🧨 The Fallout So Far
Wall Street just lived through a week straight out of the 2020 playbook — but this time, it wasn’t a virus that rocked the system, it was Trump’s tariffs.
🔻 S&P 500: -9% on the week — fastest 10% correction in years
🔻 Nasdaq: -10% — now officially in bear market territory
🔻 Dow: -8%, or over 3,300 points — worst weekly drop since pandemic-era March 2020
🔥 The trigger? Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% baseline, up to 54% on key countries) + China clapping back with 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.
📆 Weekly Outlook: What’s on Deck?
1️⃣ Tariffs Phase In (April 5 & 9)
The first wave of Trump’s tariffs already kicked in. The second — targeting so-called "bad actors" — hits April 9. Expect market reactions daily as retaliation headlines drip out.
What to Watch:
EU response (hasn’t moved yet 👀)
Additional retaliation from China or Vietnam
Trump doubling down on Truth Social
📉 This isn’t 2018. The retaliation is broader, faster, and way more coordinated.
2️⃣ Earnings Season Kicks Off (Friday)
Wall Street needs a win, and earnings might not deliver.
👀 Reports to watch:
$JPM, $WFC, $MS, $BLK – Friday
These bank results won’t reflect the tariffs yet, but their forward guidance will matter a lot.
🤔 Are banks seeing credit stress? Loan demand cratering? IPO pipeline freezing? Friday could be a rude awakening.
3️⃣ Inflation Watch: CPI Drops Thursday
March CPI is expected to come in cooler, but Powell made one thing clear:
“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.”
Wall Street Expectations:
CPI YoY: 🔻2.6% (from 2.8%)
Core CPI YoY: 🔻3.0% (from 3.1%)
MoM inflation: 📈 0.3%
But here’s the twist: It might not matter. With tariffs slamming global supply chains, April CPI could look a lot hotter.
4️⃣ IPO Freeze – Again
After a brief glimmer of hope, the IPO market just hit the brakes:
StubHub, Klarna, Chime, eToro, MNTN all paused IPO plans
Newsmax ($NMAX) fell 28% Friday
Market volatility = no appetite for risk
Expect no IPOs of consequence until this trade war gets a clear direction.
🔮 Wall Street’s New Base Case? A Recession.
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, RSM, and BofA are all saying the quiet part out loud:
The bear case is becoming the base case.
S&P 500 end-of-year targets are being slashed (4,600 is now considered "optimistic")
Fed cut expectations just jumped to five cuts in 2025
Investors are piling into bonds, staples, and cash
🧠 T&G Key Takeaways
✅ We’re in a full-blown trade war — and it’s just getting started
✅ Earnings & guidance will be the next catalyst — especially banks
✅ Inflation data may be stale — the real tariff impact hits in Q2
✅ This isn’t a dip to blindly buy — it’s a shift in regime
🗓️ Weekly Calendar
Monday
🟡 Quiet day
Earnings: $PLAY, $LEVI
Tuesday
📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism
Earnings: $CALM, $TLRY, $WBA, $WDFC
Wednesday
📋 Wholesale Inventories
📝 FOMC Minutes
Earnings: $STZ, $DAL
Thursday
🔥 CPI (Headline & Core)
🧾 Real Earnings
📉 Jobless Claims
Earnings: $KMX
Friday
💣 PPI Inflation Data
🧠 Consumer Sentiment
💼 Big Bank Earnings: $JPM, $WFC, $MS, $BLK, $BNY
🗣️ What We’re Watching
🔍 Will Powell pivot faster than expected?
💣 Will the EU go full retaliation mode?
💰 Will banks show signs of credit stress or market freeze?